Why I think smart general intelligence is coming very soon
One of my core beliefs is that AGI is going to come soon—likely this century and possibly far sooner. There's a bit too much to say on this topic to fit here, but I think we're living in the most important century (Holden Karnofsky) and that modern ML paradigms have the potential to scale tremendously and bring about a very different, ideally wonderful future.
In the last few years, my thinking on this topic has been influenced by the excellent Situational Awareness and Gwern's writing here. I've been fortunate to help with some of Dwarkesh Patel's work documenting and analyzing the progress towards AGI, which I highly recommend.
Other writers can be found here.
I really enjoy discussing this topic. Feel free to email me if you'd like to chat!